Service Plays Thursday 8/26/10

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The Rx.com Mod Team has created this Service Play sub-forum in order to supply an area for Rx Service Play Posters to expand upon their posting topics without creating a logjam in the main forum where the three principle threads are maintained..

Posters can track services here if they care to but we will need any trackers to do so in an accurate and civil manner. We did not create this area for posters to ridicule or bash any services..

You can also discuss who is hot and who is not. The general state of the pay for plays industry and any other subject or topic related to service plays.

You can also create individual threads about specific services and discuss them freely but civilly. Again bashing and abusive treatment of any services will not be tolerated.

Please remember, this forum is not here for regular posters who cap their own games to post ther daily plays. Please use our individual sport forums to post your plays. Professional cappers (those that sell plays) must remain in the Site Promotion Forum.

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Lastly The Rx Moderators are appealing to you our everyday posters to report any promotional threads or posts that are made by services or individual touts. No links or contact information to an individual service will be allowed. Just the name of the service. Please report any threads or posts that are promotional attempts by services and touts to use this forum to promote themselves..

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I will leave this thread open for a month to take questions and do my best to answer them. I will check in daily but am off on Wednesday and Thursday.

I hope this additional Service Play Forum will satisfy those posters that would like to widen the scope of topics relating to service plays and the industry in general to have their own threads. Mods will be liberal as possible regarding topics but this forum was specifically created to allow you more freedom to express your ideas regarding service plays and related subject matter. No off topic threads will be allowed.

Thank you, wilheim




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Thursday's Preseason Battles

Preseason football doesn’t really catch the nation’s attention. Fans hate it because you’re seeing your starters for maybe the entire first quarter, if you’re lucky. And players can’t enjoy the prospect of a season ending injury happening in a game that doesn’t count towards anything. Hell, Al Michaels pretty much told you that we, the gambling public, are the only folks interested in these tilts last Sunday.

Yet most everyone will keep a keen eye to what happens this week in the NFL. Week 3 of the exhibition schedule is largely considered the dress rehearsal for many teams. That means we should see the starters play the entire first half.

If you’ve been betting on home teams to come through in the preseason, then you’re enjoying some of the finest Top Ramen that pocket change can afford. That’s because the home teams are 16-13 straight up, but 13-16 against the spread. The ‘over’ has been the only profitable option during the preseason by going 19-12.

We’ve got a pair of games on Thursday night to kick off Week 3 exhibition action. Let’s take a look at both tilts.

Rams at Patriots – 7:30 p.m. EDT

The Rams’ fans haven’t had much to root for a few seasons. That changed at the NFL Draft when they took Oklahoma’s Sam Bradford with the first pick. The jury is still out on the young signal caller after two starts. He completed 6 of 13 passes for 57 yards while getting sacked four times in his debut against the Vikings. Last week, Bradford connected on 6 of 14 attempts for just 24 yards, but wasn’t sacked once at Cleveland.

St. Louis wasn’t planning on putting Bradford into the fire this year with A.J. Feeley proving to be competent under center. That won’t matter on Thursday as Feeley (thumb, elbow) is “out,” leaving Bradford to handle the starting duties. Keith Null appears to be the third-stringer after taking the majority of snaps against the Browns, while Duke’s Thaddeus Lewis will be riding the pine.

While the Rams are still figuring things out on offense, New England looks like it is ready to roll. Tom Brady was impressive in completing 10 of 12 passes for 85 yards and a touchdown in the Patriots 28-10 win as three-point road pups against Atlanta.

Perhaps the biggest news of last week was seeing Wes Welker back on the field since blowing out the ACL in his left knee last year’s season finale. The league’s top receiver the last three years snared two catches for 20 yards.

We’ve not heard much about the playing time for the Pats’ quarterbacks in this game. What does seem certain is that they will be going with Brian Hoyer and Zac Robinson behind Brady for much of the season.

Most sportsbooks are posting the Patriots as 7 ½-point home favorites with a total of 37 ½.

If there is one thing we can be assured of is that Bill Belichick doesn’t really give a damn about the preseason. When it comes to the dress rehearsal, however, his teams play to win. The Pats are 6-2 SU and 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight preseason Week 3 battles going back to 2002.

St. Louis has fared well on the road in preseason tests under Steve Spagnuolo’s short tenure as coach. Not hard to figure that out seeing as the Rams are 3-0 SU and ATS away from the Edward Jones Dome. The ‘over’ has hit in all three of those contests as well.

Colts at Packers – 8:00 p.m. EDT, ESPN

Bettors can expect to see Green Bay listed as a 3 ½-point home “chalk” with a total of 44 for this contest. That’s a fairly standard line for a preseason contest. The total, on the other hand, speaks to us seeing a high scoring affair.

One look at how the Colts are treating these games could help understand that total. Indianapolis has been awful lax on the defensive side of the ball. They gave up 367 yards to the Bills last week and 335 yards to the 49ers in the preseason opener. Both of those contests wound up as a loss for Indy.

That lack of defensive discipline has magnified the QB play issues, but not Peyton Manning’s play. Manning has looked like his usual sharp self, completing 64 percent of his passes for 182 yards and a touchdown. Manning’s backup, Curtis Painter, has left a lot of people uneasy. Painter went 9-of-19 for 64 yards and was picked off three times in the 37-17 loss to San Francisco in Week 1 of the preseason. He did turn it around by nailing 5 of his 6 passes for 97 yards and a score against Buffalo. Yet the question remains about Painter being ready for primetime.

The Packers might only be 1-1 in the preseason, but the stats show that Mike McCarthy has to be pleased with the effort…particularly on the attack.

Green Bay has racked up 761 yards in total offense in two preseason games so far. Aaron Rodgers has shined in both outings by connecting on 20 of his 24 attempts for 275 yards and three touchdowns. But more importantly, Rodgers has yet to be sacked. That’s huge for the Pack as Rodgers was sacked 50 times, the most in the NFL in 2009.

Bettors will be good to know that the Pack are 4-5 SU and 5-4 ATS during preseason home tilts under McCarthy. The ‘over’ has posted a very profitable 7-2 mark in those games. Focusing on the dress rehearsals, you’ll see that Green Bay is 2-2 SU and ATS, but the ‘over’ is 3-1 in those spots.
 
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What Bettors Need to Know: Thursday's NFL Action

St. Louis at New England (-7.5, 37.5)

Bradford's big break?

Sam Bradford gets the start for the St. Louis Rams thanks to A.J. Feeley’s injured thumb.

It will be the first time Bradford has played with Steven Jackson in the backfield and behind a healthy offensive line. However, the Rams are going to be very careful with Jackson until Week 1. He had four carries for 20 yards in last week’s 19-17 win over the Cleveland Browns.

This is Bradford’s big audition to get the start in Week 1 and after two tough preseason showings already, he needs to make some things happen. Bradford was 6-for-13 for 57 yards while taking four sacks in his first appearance against the Vikings and then went 6-of-14 for only 24 yards against the Browns last week.

New England’s RB stable

The Pats are trying to figure out some sort of running back hierarchy in the preseason, so expect to see a lot more of the rushing attack Thursday.

They currently have five running backs competing for carries and the Pats want to have a good idea of who can do what before Week 1. If the Pats know what their running back depth chart looks like, they aren’t telling anybody. Expect them to spread the carries around Thursday.

The starter report

New England will give its starters more time this week, but don’t expect the offense to be overworked. Tom Brady looks like he’s in mid-season form already, leading the first team to three touchdowns in five possessions. They don’t need much of a dress rehearsal.

Different story for the Rams, though. With Feely out, St. Louis is expected to keep Bradford and most of the first-stringers in the game through at least two quarters.

The line

The 7.5-point spread and the 37.5-point total are holding steady for the moment. New England is 2-0 straight up and against the spread (ATS) so far this preseason, while St. Louis is 1-1 straight up and ATS.

Indianapolis at Green Bay (-3.5, 44.5)

Peyton and Co.

Peyton Manning doesn’t look like he needs much more work to be ready for Game 1. He has completed 16 of 25 preseason passes with one touchdown.

Expect to see a lot from Anthony Gonzalez and Donald Brown. Gonzalez is looking to regain his spot with the first-team offense after missing all of last season with a knee injury and has some work to do after Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon emerged as threats with Manning in his absence.

The Colts are going to keep Joseph Addai as fresh as possible until these games start meaning something. That means more time for Donald Brown, provided he can block well enough to keep Manning clean.

Rodgers’ time is now

It looks as though Aaron Rodgers may finally be able to step out of Brett Favre’s shadow once and for all. He has completed 20 of 24 preseason passes with three touchdowns and no interceptions and his passer rating checks in at 154.0 so far. Tight end Jermichael Finley is becoming one of Rodgers’ favorite targets, grabbing three 12-yard passes and a touchdown during Green Bay’s long drive against the Seattle Seahawks.

The starter report

Manning and the first-string offense are expected to play into the second half, though it’s always hard to know for sure with the Colts. If Indy puts a bunch of points up early, they’ll have no reason to keep the first stringers once they find a rhythm. Same goes for the Packers. The No. 1 offensive unit will play at least a few series, but it’ll all depend after that.

Neither of these teams is far from regular season form.

The line

This line opened at Green Bay -3.5 with the total at 44 points. It hasn’t moved much since then at most shops, though you can find -4 lines and 44.5 totals around as of this writing.
 
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Thursday MLB Tips

Getaway Thursday in baseball involves nine games on the card with only two new series starting up. The Marlins and Mets wrap up their three-game set at Citi Field, while the Rangers and Twins finish things up in Arlington. We'll begin with one of the new series taking place as Detroit makes the short trip north of the border.

Tigers at Blue Jays - 7:05 PM EST

Detroit has cleaned up recently against the bottom-feeders of its division by winning six straight against Cleveland and Kansas City. The Tigers look to keep up their hot streak at Toronto, as the Jays try to finish the season strong despite likely missing the playoffs once again.

Ricky Romero (10-7, 3.50 ERA) takes the mound for Toronto, as the southpaw has not lost since falling to the Tigers at Comerica Park on July 22. Some of Romero's numbers have been affected thanks to troubles with the Red Sox, allowing 14 earned runs in 15.1 innings. Past Boston, Romero has delivered quality starts in eight of his last 10 outings that are not against the Sox. Romero's numbers at home are solid, owning an ERA of 2.62, while finishing 'over' the total in three straight starts at Rogers Center. The Jays lost his only start against the Tigers this season back in late July with a 5-2 setback as $1.40 underdog.

Detroit sends out Max Scherzer (9-9, 3.73 ERA), who has compiled five consecutive quality starts. For as well as Scherzer has pitched in this stretch, the Tigers are just 2-3, including losses to the Rays, White Sox, and Red Sox. The former Diamondback is coming off consecutive victories over the Yankees and Indians, giving up six hits and two runs in 13 innings pitched. Scherzer has never faced the Blue Jays in his short career, while Detroit is 2-10 in his 12 road starts this season.

These teams split a four-game set at Comerica Park last month, as three games finished 'under' the total. Detroit hasn't visited Toronto since the first series of last season when the Jays took three of four from the Tigers.

Marlins at Mets - 7:10 PM EST

The home team has dominated this series in 2010, owning an 11-3 mark after the Mets claimed the series opener in walk-off fashion. Both these NL East rivals are on the outside of the playoff picture, as each club hovers around the .500 plateau. A pair of unheralded starters takes the hill, with each hurler riding a nice string of outings.

Anibal Sanchez (10-8, 3.16 ERA) has allowed two earned runs in his last three starts, as the Marlins' righty is coming off seven scoreless innings of a 9-0 victory over the Astros. Florida has alternated wins and losses in each of Sanchez's previous eight starts, while the Fish are 2-1 in his last three outings on the highway. Sanchez is 1-1 in two starts against the Mets this season, allowing four earned runs in 5.2 innings of a 4-3 defeat at Citi Field in early June.

The Mets counter with Jonathon Niese (8-5, 3.33 ERA), who is fresh off four straight starts of allowing one earned run each time. New York split those four contests, but the two losses fall on the bullpen, who squandered leads in the eighth inning to the Rockies and Phillies. The Mets are just 1-3 in Niese's last four starts at home, but New York beat Florida, 6-1 on June 5 as the lefty tossed seven strong innings.

New York is 5-2 in seven home matchups this season, including four straight wins. The Mets have cashed the 'under' in 10 of their last 12 games, while the Marlins are 6-1 to the 'under' the previous seven road contests.

Twins at Rangers - 8:05 PM EST

Two of the three division leaders in the American League meet for the final contest of a four-game set in Arlington. Texas is cruising along in the AL West, while Minnesota owns a 3 ½-game advantage over Chicago in the AL Central. Cliff Lee looks to get back on track after suffering major struggles over his previous three outings.

Lee (10-7, 3.09 ERA) has taken a hit recently, giving up 18 earned runs in his last 19.2 innings of work, all in losses to the Yankees, Orioles, and Rays. The Rangers' ace actually profited more with last-place Seattle than first-place Texas. The Mariners went 9-4 in his 13 starts for +4.8 units. On the flip side, the Rangers are 3-6 in his nine outings while losing bettors 8.1 units, including three defeats when Lee is laying at least $2.00.

After the Rangers provided Lee with three runs or less in his first five starts, Texas has plated four runs or more in each of his last four outings (1-3). Lee shut down the Twins earlier this season with the Mariners, scattering five hits and one earned run in eight innings of a 2-1 victory.

Francisco Liriano (11-7, 3.45 ERA) received a couple extra days off to rest his arm after throwing over 106 pitches in each of his last four starts. The Minnesota southpaw hasn't been sharp in this timeframe, allowing 20 hits and 10 earned runs in his previous three trips to the mound, but the Twins managed a pair of crucial victories over the White Sox. The Twins are 6-1 in Liriano's last seven starts, while Minnesota has scored at least six runs six times in this span. Liriano didn't face the Rangers earlier this season, but did allow seven earned runs in just two innings of an 8-5 loss in Arlington last August.

The home team is 5-0 in this season's series, while the Rangers own a 5-4 edge in Arlington over the Twins since last season. Each club owns a 5-2 record in Game 4's of a series, as Minnesota looks to improve on a 6-4 run on the road since early August.
 
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Thursday’s Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers

Streaking

Chris Carpenter (14-4, 2.88 ERA), St. Louis Cardinals

The St. Louis Cardinals have won seven of Carpenter’s last eight starts. The big right-hander hasn’t allowed more than three runs in an outing since a 4-3 loss at Colorado on July 8 and has gone at least seven innings in every start since the All-Star break. Carpenter is also 5-1 lifetime against the Nationals with a 3.56 ERA.

Wandy Rodriguez (9-12, 4.00 ERA), Houston Astros

Rodriguez hasn’t won in four straight starts, but don’t point the finger at him. The last time he allowed more than two runs in a start was back on July 19 and he has lowered his ERA from 5.11 to 4.00 since then. Rodriguez took a 6-3 loss to the Marlins in his last outing, allowing just two earned runs over six innings while striking out 10.

Slumping

Justin Masterson (4-12, 5.33 ERA), Cleveland Indians

Masterson has just two wins since the middle of June and allowed five runs over six innings against the Tigers in his last start, a 6-0 loss. Reports out of Cleveland indicate that the Indians could send Masterson to the bullpen once he gets up to about 165 innings. He has thrown 145 1/3 innings this year and moving him to relief could open up a spot for Indians prospect Carlos Carrasco.
 
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LADY LUCK

Thursday's WNBA Best Bet

Indiana Fever at New York Liberty (-3.5, 146.5)

There's no place like home, especially when you hang your hat at Madison Square Garden.

That's where the Liberty open their playoff series with the fever tonight, just nine days after they clobbered Indiana 78-57 to overtake first place in the East.

The red-hot Liberty have won 11 of their final 12 overall after beating Connecticut 88-87 in overtime Sunday to secure home-court advantage in the first round.

"Home-court advantage was important to us," Liberty guard Leilani Mitchell told reporters. "We wanted to end on a good note and have some momentum going into the playoffs."

New York has been especially hot at home, winning eight in a row at the Garden, while the Fever dropped their final three games of the regular season.

The Liberty are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 and it won't take much to make it 9-3.

Pick: New York
 
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NFLX Dunkel

Indianapolis at Green Bay
The Packers look to build on their 6-3 ATS record in their last 9 August games. Green Bay is the pick (-3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Packers favored by 8 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (-3 1/2). Here are all of this week's preseason picks.

THURSDAY, AUGUST 26

Game 251-252: St. Louis at New England (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 120.253 New England 129.455
Dunkel Line: New England by 9; 35
Vegas Line: New England by 7 1/2; 37 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New England (-7 1/2); Under

Game 253-254: Indianapolis at Green Bay (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indianapolis 113.572; Green Bay 121.846
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 8 1/2; 47
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 3 1/2; 44
Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (-3 1/2); Over
 
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HOT LINES

Thursday's Best MLB Bets

Detroit Tigers at Toronto Blue Jays (-140, 8)

Detroit outfielder Johnny Damon opted against returning to his former squad, the Boston Red Sox, on Wednesday to remain with the team that signed him this season.

The young Tigers get more in return than his .270 batting average and solid fielding. They also get a strong boost of confidence from a veteran that believes in them and backed it up with his actions.

"Initially I thought long and hard about it, but after going around and talking to a bunch of my teammates, they want me here and they feel like we can make a strong push, at least make this (AL) Central race interesting," Damon said. "That's why I'm going to stay. I've said all along I love playing for Detroit, for the city, for the fans."

The Tigers, who have won five of their last six, may not be able to erase a double-digit games deficit in the AL Central but they will make a good run at it. Look for Detroit to come together in light of Damon's words and gesture.

Detroit sends Max Scherzer to the hill and he has been its ace over the past month, posting a 1.35 ERA over his last five starts. Toronto counter with Ricky Romero, who was shelled in his last outing against the Red Sox.

Pick: Detroit Tigers


Houston Astros at Philadelphia Philles (-165, 8.5)

These two teams' legs are dragging after playing a 16-inning marathon on Tuesday, but not as badly as their arms.

Tuesday's affair saw the two teams combine to use 15 pitchers, not including Phillies starting pitcher Roy Oswalt's insertion in the outfield. Both sides enter today's series finale woefully unarmed.

It doesn't help that Phillies' starter Kyle Kendrick hasn't gone more than seven innings in his last nine starts. In fact, he went just 5 2/3 in allowing five earned runs in his last outing and lasted only 3 1/3 while also giving up five runs on Aug. 10.

Houston's Wandy Rodriguez has last six innings or longer in his last four starts but the Astros are 0-4 in those games. W-Rod allowed only five earned runs in that span but the bullpen gave up a total of 18. You call that relief?

Look for both teams to be sluggish on the mound and slugging at the plate.

Pick: Over
 
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Wunderdog
Game: St. Louis at New England (Thursday 8/26 7:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: St. Louis +7.5 (-110)


There was a time when Bill Belichick went all out to win these games as he started his coaching career in the preseason going 13-4. He has since had a losing straight up record at 12-14. Steve Spagnuolo has issues to deal with here as he attempts to change the culture of losing with the Rams. He has a 4-2 mark in the preseason which includes finishing on a winning note a perfect 2-0 in week three and four. Yes, this is the most "real" game of the preseason, with starters typically seeing the most action. But, 7.5 points is a ton in the preseason. Lines above 7 have occured only three times in the past seven years. The ATS record of the dog in those games? 3-0.
 
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Hammer The Book

rotation 911/912::detroit tigers @ toronto blue jays (blue jays ml -132 @ bet online)


rotation 909/910::florida marlins @ new york mets (mets ml -109 @ bet jamaica & pinnancle


rotation 901/902::houston astros @ philadelphia phillies (astros ml +162 @ bet online)
rotation 251/252::st. Louis rams @ new england patriots (under 38 @ cris, BetUs, sportsbet, book maker, 5dimes & betonline)
rotation 253/254::indianapolis colts @ green bay packers (packers -3 @ sportsbet & 5dimes)
rotation 913/914::oakland athletics @ cleveland indians (athletics ml -113 @ bet jamaica & pinnancle)
 
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Hondo

Hondo's free-fall into the abyss continued last night when the Yanks were spanked in Toronto to cause the deficit to balloon to a beefy 1845 bilardel los.

Tonight, the darts of doom have landed on Scherzer, Liriano and Niese -- 10 units apiece on the Tigers, Twins and Metamucils.
 
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Thursday, August 26

Hot pitchers
-- Rodriguez is 2-1, 1.74 in his last six starts.
-- Correia is 3-1, 3.63 in his last four starts.
-- Carpenter is 5-1, 1.99 in his last eight starts.
-- Niese is 1-0, 1.38 in his last four starts. ASanchez is 2-1, 1.83 in his last three starts.

-- Scherzer is 2-1, 1.89 in his last five starts. Romero is 3-0, 3.44 in his last five starts.
-- Liriano is 2-0, 2.55 in his last three road starts.
-- EJackson is 1-0, 1.80 in three starts for the White Sox.

Cold pitchers
-- Kendrick is 1-2, 6.89 in his last three starts.
-- Monasterios is 0-4, 7.29 in his last five starts. Gallardo has a 7.72 RA in his last three outings.
-- Kennedy is 2-2, 5.71 in his last six starts.

-- Masterson is 0-2, 6.35 in his last three starts. Mazzaro is 0-3, 4.99 in his last five starts.
-- Lee is 1-3, 5.80 in his last five starts.
-- Arrieta is 1-2, 5.30 in his last three starts.

Totals
-- Under is 10-3 in last thirteen Houston games.
-- Over is 11-3 in last fourteen games at Miller Park.
-- Over is 13-4-1 in last eighteen Arizona road games.
-- Over is 9-3 in last dozen Washington home games.
-- Four of last five Florida games went over the total.

-- Seven of last eight Toronto games went over the total.
-- Last nine Oakland road games stayed under the total.
-- Last five Minnesota road games stayed under the total.
-- Five of last seven Baltimore road games stayed under total.

Hot Teams
-- Astros won their last four games, allowing seven runs.
-- Dodgers won three of their last four games.
-- Marlins won six of their last eight games. Mets are 11-3 in game after their last 14 losses.
-- Padres are 14-3 in their last seventeen home games.

-- Toronto is 6-3 in its last nine home games. Tigers won five of their last six games.
-- A's won six of their last eight games.
-- Rangers are 11-4 in their last fifteen home games.

Cold Teams
-- Phillies lost four of their last five games.
-- Brewers lost their last three games, allowing 17 runs.
-- Nationals are 4-13 in their last seventeen games. Cardinals lost seven of their last ten games.
-- Arizona lost nine of its last twelve games.

-- Indians lost ten of their last eleven games.
-- Twins lost four of their last five games.
-- White Sox lost seven of their last ten games. Orioles are 4-7 in their last eleven ballgames.
 

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